Gibbs and Robinson Go 1-2. My Case for James Cook Over Ja'Marr Chase at Pick 3.
Hey, this might sound crazy. I have Jonathan Taylor at 30th overall and Christian McCaffrey at 70th. Two names half the industry has in their first round, probably top 7, and I've got them buried on the back half of my board.
Why? I believe in a few other workhorse backs this season so much more. Specifically, Kenneth Walker who is my #5 overall and Omarion Hampton who's my #6. I think the red flags and warning signs seem much bigger with McCaffrey and Taylor. When Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson come off the board at picks 1 and 2 in your draft, what are you doing at pick 3? Let's dive in to some new possibilities.
Why not Christian McCaffrey
Well, for starters he's turning 30. You don't draft running backs, especially in the first round, once they hit 30 and expect a big return. He also touched the rock 413 times last year, a punishing workload that catches up to backs, grim reaper style. I honestly think he misses real time this season. That's not an uncommon opinion if I'm being honest. It's why he's sitting at 70 on my board. I just can't figure out why half the industry has him top-5. It's not 2023.
Why not Jonathan Taylor
This is the one that I think people will actually push back on, so let me build the real case. Taylor scored 20 total touchdowns last year, tying his career high, and he's never topped 12 in any other season. That's not a skill level, that's an outlier, and touchdown-heavy production is historically the first thing to regress.
Here's the number that actually sold me. With Daniel Jones healthy through Week 13, Taylor averaged over 23 points a game. Once Jones went down, that number nearly cut in half, down to 12 a game the rest of the season. Yahoo's own bust list flags him as very high risk for exactly this reason, a hot start that masked him scoring below projection in his final seven games as Indianapolis fell out of the playoff race.
And the offense around him got weaker, not stronger. The Colts lost WR1 Michael Pittman and never replaced him. With Alec Pierce and Josh Downs already banged up, I'm gauging that there will be less respect for the passing game which means more bodies in the box for Taylor to run through. One analyst on record won't put him higher than RB5 this year and isn't expecting the touchdown total to repeat, and that's not a hot take, that's someone doing the same math I did.
My Case For James Cook
Here's what people miss about Cook:
He led the entire NFL in rushing yards last year, 1,621 on 309 carries, and finished RB6 in points per game while barely touching the passing game at all, just 40 targets, an 8.4% target share. That's his absolute floor with one hand tied behind his back. Cook also has 32 touchdowns to his name over the past 2 seasons and is in the thick of his prime. The volume and the finishing ability are already proven. Nothing about that needs to change for him to be good.
What actually needs to change is the passing-game role, and I don't think that's pure hope this time. Buffalo brought in Pete Carmichael as offensive coordinator, and Carmichael spent 19 of the last 20 seasons under Sean Payton, an offense that's historically funneled real receiving work to its running backs. There is a real structural reason to expect a different role, not just a Bills fan's wish list. If it hits even partially, Cook's not just a good back anymore, he instantly becomes elite.
Real three-down workhorses are disappearing. Once the top names are gone, there's nothing left at the position the way there still is at receiver two rounds later. That's the actual case, scarcity, not just talent.
But I certainly won't hypnotize you anymore. James Cook's ceiling depends on a receiving role Buffalo's promised for three straight years and never delivered. They ran the 25th fewest pass attempts in football last year. I'm betting on a door that hasn't opened yet. C'mon Pete!
The Case for Ja'Marr Chase
Chase doesn't need me to bet on anything changing. Third in target share. Third in first-read share. Sixth in red zone looks. He scored more without Burrow last year than with him, 21.2 points a game in nine starts without his quarterback, versus 17.8 when Burrow played the whole way through. The floor doesn't move. I know firsthand. I took him at #1 Overall last season.
Worth being honest here too, since I've held everyone else in this piece to the same standard. Chase hyperextended his knee in practice on August 25th. Coach Zac Taylor says he expects him ready for the opener, and I believe that, but it's a real, current variable, not nothing.
The Classic Coin Toss
It's truly hard to pass up someone with the pedigree of Ja'Marr Chase. He's just a flat out, certified, baller, especially in a PPR format. But there is something about James Cook that I cannot shake going into this season. I believe that he'll finish as the #1 Overall Fantasy Player and have ranked him accordingly. Look, I won't fault you for taking Ja'Marr. Me, I'm rolling with Cook. That coin I flipped, a Buffalo Nickel!
Quick Hits
Watch: Ty Johnson's practice reports into Week 1. A real setback there is the actual trigger for Cook's ceiling.
Gold: Blake Corum, my RB15. A gut call, not a data-backed one. Preseason's where those two are allowed to disagree.
Waiver: Cincinnati's targets behind Chase, if Tee Higgins' heel lingers past this week.